UK: Supreme Court ruling shows courts are willing to intervene – ABN AMRO

Analysts at ABN AMRO, notes that the UK Supreme Court ruled that PM Johnson’s suspension of parliament in the run-up to the Brexit deadline of 31 October is unlawful.

Key Quotes

“As a result, parliament will sit again from Wednesday onwards, though the court does not prevent the PM from proroguing parliament again as long as he does not prevent it from carrying out its duties. Indeed, Mr Johnson said that there was ‘a good case for getting on with a Queen’s Speech anyway’, raising the possibility of a shorter and more conventional suspension. The ability of parliament to sit for more days between now and 31 October does not really directly change the outlook. However, it does signal that the UK courts would intervene to ensure that the government sticks to the law.”

“This is particularly relevant given the legislation passed by the UK parliament that legally obliges the PM to ask the EU for a Brexit delay in the event that no deal is agreed (by 19 October) and MPs vote against leaving with no deal. As such, the chances of a no-deal Brexit in the near term appear to have declined further, as the courts would likely intervene again in case the government were to choose to try and get round the law against no deal.”

“Looking further out, all scenarios remain on the table. We expect an election in late November or early December. The outcome of such an election is highly unpredictable and could either lead to a government  that would favour a no-deal Brexit or one that promises a referendum with remain on the ballot paper.”