No RBA rate hike anytime soon - Commerzbank

Commerzbank is out with an analysis note on why they think the Reserve Bank of Australia is even further out from a rate hike than most are expecting.

Key highlights

Inflation data unlikely to provide an argument for the RBA to hike rates any time soon.

Inflation remains stuck to the lower bound of the RBA's target range again in Q1 2018.

Core inflation measures only ever touch the lower bound of the 2-3% target range, hitting somewhere between 1.9 and 2%.

The US-China trade war represents a significant headwind to Australian growth.

Growth for several years has been driven primarily by foreign trade, not domestic consumption, specifically with China. 

The RBA will mostly be spending its time trying to keep the AUD from appreciating, which would put further downward pressure on inflation.