Back
26 Feb 2014
Flash: GBP/USD upside fading? - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, believes the GBP/USD bullish momentum could decelerate in the medium term.
Key Quotes
"This morning will see the release of revised and more detailed UK GDP data for Q4. Yesterday's CBI Distributive trades survey was strong and mortgage applications are picking up."
"No GBP-bearish view should be predicated on the probability of softer economic data arriving imminently. Our case is that the MPC will go on leaning against expectations of rate hikes before 2015, that the lopsided nature of the recovery is a long-term threat to the currency, and that at current levels right at the top of the post-2008 range, GBP/USD is running out of headroom."
"That doesn't mean that a turnaround is imminent, but we are not discouraged to see the pound tread water or even edge a bit higher in this range. GDP growth will probably remain at 0.7% in Q4."
Key Quotes
"This morning will see the release of revised and more detailed UK GDP data for Q4. Yesterday's CBI Distributive trades survey was strong and mortgage applications are picking up."
"No GBP-bearish view should be predicated on the probability of softer economic data arriving imminently. Our case is that the MPC will go on leaning against expectations of rate hikes before 2015, that the lopsided nature of the recovery is a long-term threat to the currency, and that at current levels right at the top of the post-2008 range, GBP/USD is running out of headroom."
"That doesn't mean that a turnaround is imminent, but we are not discouraged to see the pound tread water or even edge a bit higher in this range. GDP growth will probably remain at 0.7% in Q4."