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16 May 2017
CME Group FedWatch's June hike probability stable above 70%
Despite the dismal macro data from the United States, CME Group FedWatch tool, which calculates unconditional probabilities of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes to generate a binary probability tree, shows that the chance of a June rate hike is at 73.8% on Tuesday. The fact that the U.S. Treasury bond yields remain quite allow the probability to float above the 70% mark.
- US Treasuries: Yields virtually unchanged on Tuesday
- US: Building permits in April were at 1,229,000, 2.5% below the revised March rate of 1,260,000
- US: Industrial production advanced 1.0 percent in April