AUD/USD: bears taking control as beta-Aussie loses its appeal, headed to 0.7490?

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7562, down -0.56% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7617 and low at 0.7545.

AUD/USD is attempting a minor correction, but the RBA just wasn't hawkish enough overnight and thus the Aussie is starting to lose its appeal among markets. The risk-off sentiment this week has not been kind to such higher beta currencies as the Aussie in late Feb and late March, rolling through into this week so far. 

• Sentiment towards AUD is now more negative - Nomura
• Australia's Feb trade balance sees major beat on expectations

Nonetheless, the fundamental picture seems better for the Aussie economy if taking the record trade balance surplus into account and considering the nation's reliance on China that appears to be recovering at a higher rate in terms of trade and economic stability. However, the RBA's statement was not encouraging for the bulls and AUD's appeal has been dented. Analysts at Westpac noted that iron ore prices are now down more than 16% since mid-Feb, key data points such as jobs and retailing paint a tepid growth story and the RBA’s statement betrays more concern on the labour market.

• AUD's appeal has been dented - Westpac
• RBA statement was seen as dovish - BBH

AUD/USD levels

Analysts at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD's near term outlook is more negative. "The currency pair has started to erode the 2017 support line but so far has held over the 0.7588 low from last week. The intraday Elliott wave counts are relatively neutral, but the market will stay offered below the 0.7627 55 and 20 day moving averages."

To the downside, the key levels to note are the 0.7552 200 day ma (broken in US today) and 0.7490 March low according to the analysts while their longer term outlook is neutralising. "Should a rise as well as daily chart close above the 0.7778 level be seen, the April 2016 high at 0.7836 would be in focus."