UK: Politics gets nasty, opening the way to a May victory - MUFG

Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at MUFG, suggests that another twist in UK politics post-Brrexit took place yesterday with Boris Johnson bowing out of the leadership race before it had started after Michael Gove decided to drop out of his campaign and run himself.

Key Quotes

“Michael Gove suddenly yesterday morning decided Johnson wasn’t up to the job. An article by Johnson in the Telegraph where he appeared to have softened his immigration stance plus disagreement on jobs in a new government were rumoured to have played a role.

Who really knows! But our conclusion from this surprise development is that Theresa May is now the odds-on favourite to win. Might Gove and May have done a deal with Gove getting a plumb job in a May government? The leadership election system for the Tory party is that MPs will now whittle down the five candidates (May, Gove, Fox, Crabb and Leadsom) to just two. Then from the final two, Tory party members across the country will chose the leader. A You Gov poll of Tory members has Theresa May well in front as the most popular candidate. Michael Gove might do well even to get to the final two given the anger amongst Tory MPs over his treatment of Johnson.”