Dollar Index inter-markets: up, down… up?

The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar Index, has come under renewed selling pressure today after climbing as high as the 95.50 area on Thursday, boosted by increasing risk aversion as ‘Brexit’ concerns kept escalating.

However, a mild tone favouring riskier assets, crude oil prices snapping a 6-session negative streak plus rumours of a BoJ-led coordinated action by the main central banks in order to increment USD funding in case of ‘Brexit’ has been weighing on USD and dragged the index back to the 94.40/20 band.

Adding to the downbeat mood, volatility tracked by VIX remains depressed, while Fed Fund Futures contracts are also pointing south at the time of writing. Following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the probability of a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in July has been abruptly trimmed to almost 12%.

On the opposite direction, US money markets are not currently tagging along the decline in USD, with yields across the curve posting gains for the day.

All in all, risk-on/risk-off sentiment in the upcoming sessions will be strongly dependent on the development/news surrounding the EU-UK Referendum on June 23, leaving the Dollar exposed to increasing volatility along with its other safe have peers, JPY and CHF, as we get closer to the event.