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5 May 2016
CAD: March trade deficit widest on record – Deutsche Bank
Brett Ryan, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, notes that on a balance of payments basis, Canada’s March international trade deficit (-C$3.4 billion vs. –C$2.5 billion) was the widest on record.
Key Quotes
“Exports declined by -4.8% month-over-month (vs. -6.6% previously), largely due to motor vehicles and parts (-6.0% vs. -6.1%), which accounted for 25% of the drop in March. Auto-related exports are expected to rebound modestly in April following two consecutive months of declines. Imports fell by -2.5% (vs. -2.7%) with consumer goods (-4.6% vs. +1.0%) comprising 43% of the drop in March.
However, for the first quarter, inflation-adjusted exports were up 8.7% annualized, while imports rose a lesser 3.0%. In turn, net exports should contribute meaningfully to Q1 real GDP growth (released May 31), which we currently project at 3.2%.”
Key Quotes
“Exports declined by -4.8% month-over-month (vs. -6.6% previously), largely due to motor vehicles and parts (-6.0% vs. -6.1%), which accounted for 25% of the drop in March. Auto-related exports are expected to rebound modestly in April following two consecutive months of declines. Imports fell by -2.5% (vs. -2.7%) with consumer goods (-4.6% vs. +1.0%) comprising 43% of the drop in March.
However, for the first quarter, inflation-adjusted exports were up 8.7% annualized, while imports rose a lesser 3.0%. In turn, net exports should contribute meaningfully to Q1 real GDP growth (released May 31), which we currently project at 3.2%.”