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6 Nov 2015
Short EURJPY into the US payrolls - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at TDS, suggests that the best way to position for this report is to be short EURJPY as in the event of a very strong report, we would expect to see greater downward pressure on the EUR (given that the market has piled into net shorts since the ECB meeting).
Key Quotes
“With that said, our sense is that the market is positioned one way for this report and that is moderately long USDs and looking for a strong report. This suggests that payrolls will need to significantly surprise to the upside (close to 250k) to sustain the USD bid we think, and also makes the USD vulnerable to the downside on a slightly disappointing number.”
“Should we get a very large upside surprise (as suggested by ISM services), the first line of support comes in around 131.60. We also view this position as a soft hedge against a negative surprise, and, in the event of that outcome we think it will offer more appealing entry points for the market to reinitiate EUR shorts. We see resistance in EURJPY at 133.30.”
Key Quotes
“With that said, our sense is that the market is positioned one way for this report and that is moderately long USDs and looking for a strong report. This suggests that payrolls will need to significantly surprise to the upside (close to 250k) to sustain the USD bid we think, and also makes the USD vulnerable to the downside on a slightly disappointing number.”
“Should we get a very large upside surprise (as suggested by ISM services), the first line of support comes in around 131.60. We also view this position as a soft hedge against a negative surprise, and, in the event of that outcome we think it will offer more appealing entry points for the market to reinitiate EUR shorts. We see resistance in EURJPY at 133.30.”