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1 Oct 2013
Flash: Zero probability of Fed moving in October - BBH
FXstreet.com (London) - Research at teams at BBH note that jobs numbers are looming and markets will have this in focus “provided the US government is open”.
Key Quotes:
“Provided the US government is open, investors expect to see the September jobs reports at the end of the week”.
“It is among the most important economic reports in the monthly cycle and often sets the tone for other data, such as personal income, industrial production, and construction spending”.
“There are few inputs for economists, but we do know that weekly initial jobless claims have continued to trend lower. This year the US has averaged about 180k net new jobs a month. In 2012, the average was about 183k--statistically the same”.
“Such a stable average makes it a relatively easy forecast. Regardless of what the actual report shows, we attribute a near-zero probability of an October tapering move by the Fed”.
Key Quotes:
“Provided the US government is open, investors expect to see the September jobs reports at the end of the week”.
“It is among the most important economic reports in the monthly cycle and often sets the tone for other data, such as personal income, industrial production, and construction spending”.
“There are few inputs for economists, but we do know that weekly initial jobless claims have continued to trend lower. This year the US has averaged about 180k net new jobs a month. In 2012, the average was about 183k--statistically the same”.
“Such a stable average makes it a relatively easy forecast. Regardless of what the actual report shows, we attribute a near-zero probability of an October tapering move by the Fed”.