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21 Aug 2015
Long USD/JPY, target 126.25 - NAB
FXStreet (Bali) - NAB is entering long USD/JPY at 123.60, initial target 126.25, stop 122.00.
Key Quotes
"We are expecting a modest upward trend in USD/JPY over time and while the near term appears relatively range-bound due to the downward pull of risk aversion and the upward tensions from the persistently low inflation outcomes, we feel the current level offers a good long USD/JPY entry point."
"We expect the gradual ongoing rise in USD/Asia and USD/EM to continue and the former offers some intermittent cover for a long USD/JPY position as investors will be sympathetic to the JPY not losing competitiveness to Asian trading partners.
"The Fed’s next policy meeting on 17 September suggests there is little point in the BoJ easing on 15 September, just in case the Fed does hike and this does some of the BoJ’s work for it (in a further slide in the JPY)."
"Around the BoJ’s following meeting in October however, it is likely to have to revise lower its GDP and CPI forecasts."
Key Quotes
"We are expecting a modest upward trend in USD/JPY over time and while the near term appears relatively range-bound due to the downward pull of risk aversion and the upward tensions from the persistently low inflation outcomes, we feel the current level offers a good long USD/JPY entry point."
"We expect the gradual ongoing rise in USD/Asia and USD/EM to continue and the former offers some intermittent cover for a long USD/JPY position as investors will be sympathetic to the JPY not losing competitiveness to Asian trading partners.
"The Fed’s next policy meeting on 17 September suggests there is little point in the BoJ easing on 15 September, just in case the Fed does hike and this does some of the BoJ’s work for it (in a further slide in the JPY)."
"Around the BoJ’s following meeting in October however, it is likely to have to revise lower its GDP and CPI forecasts."