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15 Oct 2014
USD/CAD overall remains bid - TD Securities
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities explained that with investors casting nervous glances at global growth and policy implications, weaker crude oil is another cause to doubt that the BoC will be quick to follow any, eventual tightening in Fed policy in 2015.
Key Quotes:
Speaking at the weekend, Governor Poloz stressed that policy at home will be set with the domestic economy in mind, rather than matching Fed policy moves."
"Sustained weakness in crude oil prices will curb investment in the domestic oil patch—adding a further headwinds to the rebound in business investment that the BoC feels is a key determinant of returning the Canadian economy to full capacity. By our own reckoning, sub-$80/bbl crude prices will have a more obvious impact on the viability of some higher cost, marginal producers and sustained losses below here are liable to accentuate pressure on the CAD to some degree."
"We over-estimated the CAD’s ability to resist the broader onslaught of the USD and the move to new cycle highs above the March peak strongly suggests that the overall rally in USD/CAD is getting back on track—sooner than we had expected. We had recently tried to short USD/CAD, in anticipation of a moderation and correction in the USD rally running into year end."
Key Quotes:
Speaking at the weekend, Governor Poloz stressed that policy at home will be set with the domestic economy in mind, rather than matching Fed policy moves."
"Sustained weakness in crude oil prices will curb investment in the domestic oil patch—adding a further headwinds to the rebound in business investment that the BoC feels is a key determinant of returning the Canadian economy to full capacity. By our own reckoning, sub-$80/bbl crude prices will have a more obvious impact on the viability of some higher cost, marginal producers and sustained losses below here are liable to accentuate pressure on the CAD to some degree."
"We over-estimated the CAD’s ability to resist the broader onslaught of the USD and the move to new cycle highs above the March peak strongly suggests that the overall rally in USD/CAD is getting back on track—sooner than we had expected. We had recently tried to short USD/CAD, in anticipation of a moderation and correction in the USD rally running into year end."