EUR/USD: A move to 1.1495 seems unlikely for the time being – UOB

In the view of Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group, further upside in EUR/USD to the 1.1495 level appears not favoured for the time being.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: We expected EUR to strengthen yesterday. However, we were of the view that “1.1200 is likely out of reach.” We did not expect EUR to continue to soar as it reached a high of 1.1227. Today, EUR could strengthen further, but it might not be able to maintain a foothold above 1.1250 (next resistance is at 1.1300). Support is at 1.1180, followed by 1.1150.

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (13 Jul, spot at 1.1140), we stated that EUR “is still strong and could rise further to 1.1200, as high as 1.1250.” However, we did not quite expect EUR to break above 1.1200 so quickly (EUR rose to a high of 1.1227 in late NY trade). From here, a break of 1.1250 will not be surprising. That said, it remains to be seen if EUR can maintain the frenetic pace of advance seen over the past few days. We see short-term resistance levels at 1.1300 and 1.1400. At this stage, it is premature to expect EUR to rise to the 2022 high of 1.1495 (see updated 1-3 months view below). If EUR breaks below 1.1120 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1035 yesterday), it would indicate that the EUR strength that started on Monday has come to an end.