US CPI: USD rallies should be sold into unless Core measure surprises to the upside – TDS

Economists at TD Securities analyze how tomorrow's all important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) print could impact the Dollar and the USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs.

The bar is high to compel a reversal of fortune

“The market has moved back to fading Fed hawkishness and putting the USD on the back-foot. An on-consensus print does not strike us as a particular threat to the latter. Moreover, it is not evidently clear that a positive surprise on core inflation would tremendously alter the path for the USD either.”

“As much as the USD looks stretched on a tactical basis, we think the bar is high to compel a reversal of fortune. USD rallies should be sold into.”

“With the BoJ meeting next week, USD/JPY is a clear candidate for more downside. Meanwhile, EUR/USD has shown the capacity to rally again; 1.0780/00 is all that stands in the way of another melt-up.”