Trade underperformance of China may extend – TD Securities

Previewing the upcoming data releases from China, analysts at TD Securities said that they think the trade underperformance may extend as external demand is likely to be soft in 2023.

Continued pressure on activity in December and January

"While in the very near-term, consumer caution will cap consumption spending and in turn imports."

"Faltering goods demand may further hurt exports this month though imports may see a slight improvement from last month given the rapid easing in COVID restrictions."

"After the easing in COVID restrictions, virus cases have increased and pressure on health facilities has intensified. Thus, mobility has worsened and consumer sentiment also declined as consumers become increasingly cautious. We expect continued pressure on activity in Dec and Jan before the economy starts to show signs of improvement."